Increasing Returns in the Value of Information

Is there an intrinsic nonconcavity to the value of information? In an influential paper, Radner and Stiglitz (1984, henceforth RS) suggests that there is. They demonstrated, in a seemingly general model, that the marginal value of a small amount of information is zero. Since costless information is always (weakly) valuable, this finding implies that, unless the information is useless, it must exhibit increasing marginal returns over some range. RS do present a few examples that violate their assumptions for which information exhibits decreasing marginal returns. Yet, the conditions under which they obtain the nonconcavity do not seem initially to be overly strong. They index the information structure, represented by a Markov matrix of state-conditional signal distributions, by a parameter representing the `amount' of information, with a zero level of the parameter representing null information. The main assumption is that this Markov matrix be a differentiable in the index parameter at null information, which seems to be a standard smoothness assumption. As noted by RS, this nonconcavity has several implications: the demand for information will be a discontinuous function of its price; agents will not buy `small' quantities of information; and agents will tend to specialize in information production. The nonconcavity has been especially vexing to the literature on experimentation. If the value of information is not concave in the present action, then the analysis of optimal experimentation is much more complex. Moreover, some recent papers have considered experimentation in strategic settings (Harrington (JET 1995); Mirman, Samuelson and Schlee (JET 1994)). In these models, the nonconcavity means that the best reply mappings may not be convex-valued, so that pure strategy equilibria may not exist. The purpose of this paper is to re-examine the conditions under which a small amount of information has zero marginal value. Much of the experimentation and information demand literature has assumed either an infinite number of signal realizations or an infinite number of states, unlike the finite RS framework. Our objective is to clarify the conditions under which the nonconcavity holds in this more common framework. This general setting will help us to evaluate the robustness of the nonconcavity. We find that the assumptions required to obtain the nonconcavityare fairly strong; although some of the assumptions are purely technical, most are substantive: we present examples showing that their failure leads to a failure of nonconcavity.

Parameter Estimation of Lateral Spacecraft Fuel Slosh

Predicting the effect of fuel slosh on the attitude control system of a spacecraft or launch vehicle is a very important and challenging task. Whether the spacecraft is spinning or moving laterally, the dynamic effect of the fuel slosh helps determine whether the spacecraft will remain on its intended trajectory. Three categories of slosh can be caused by launch vehicle or spacecraft maneuvers when the fuel is in the presence of an acceleration field. These are bulk-fluid motion, subsurface wave motion (currents), and free-surface slosh. Each of these slosh types has a periodic component defined by either a spinning or a lateral motion. For spinning spacecraft, all three types of slosh can greatly affect stability. Bulk-fluid motion and free-surface slosh can affect the lateral-slosh characteristics. For either condition, an unpredicted coupled resonance between the spacecraft and its onboard fuel could threaten a mission. This ongoing research effort seeks to improve the accuracy and efficiency of modeling techniques used to predict these types of fluid motions for lateral motion. Particular efforts focus on analyzing the effects of viscoelastic diaphragms on slosh dynamics

A CFD Approach to Modeling Spacecraft Fuel Slosh

Energy dissipation and resonant coupling from sloshing fuel in spacecraft fuel tanks is a problem that occurs in the design of many spacecraft. In the case of a spin stabilized spacecraft, this energy dissipation can cause a growth in the spacecrafts' nutation (wobble) that may lead to disastrous consequences for the mission. Even in non-spinning spacecraft, coupling between the spacecraft or upper stage flight control system and an unanticipated slosh resonance can result in catastrophe. By using a Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) solver such as Fluent, a model for this fuel slosh can be created. The accuracy of the model must be tested by comparing its results to an experimental test case. Such a model will allow for the variation of many different parameters such as fluid viscosity and gravitational field, yielding a deeper understanding of spacecraft slosh dynamics. In order to gain a better understanding of the dynamics behind sloshing fluids, the Launch Services Program (LSP) at the NASA Kennedy Space Center (KSC) is interested in finding ways to better model this behavior. Thanks to past research, a state-of-the-art fuel slosh research facility was designed and fabricated at Embry Riddle Aeronautical University (ERAU). This test facility has produced interesting results and a fairly reliable parameter estimation process to predict the necessary values that accurately characterize a mechanical pendulum analog model. The current study at ERAU uses a different approach to model the free surface sloshing of liquid in a spherical tank using Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) methods. Using a software package called Fluent, a model was created to simulate the sloshing motion of the propellant. This finite volume program uses a technique called the Volume of Fluid (VOF) method to model the interaction between two fluids [4]. For the case of free surface slosh, the two fluids are the propellant and air. As the fuel sloshes around in the tank, it naturally displaces the air. Using the conservation of mass, momentum, and energy equations, as well as the VOF equations, one can predict the behavior of the sloshing fluid and calculate the forces, pressure gradients, and velocity field for the entire liquid as a function of time

Megalith quarries for Stonehenge’s bluestones. Review

Geologists and archaeologists have long known that the bluestones of Stonehenge came from the Preseli Hills of west Wales, 230km away, but only recently have some of their exact geological sources been identified. Two of these quarries - Carn Goedog and Craig Rhos-y-felin - have now been excavated to reveal evidence of megalith quarrying around 3000 BC - the same period as the first stage of the construction of Stonehenge. The authors present evidence for the extraction of the stone pillars and consider how they were transported, including the possibility that they were erected in a temporary monument close to the quarries, before completing their journey to Stonehenge

Craig Rhos-y-felin: A Welsh bluestone megalith quarry for Stonehenge

The long-distance transport of the bluestones from south Wales to Stonehenge is one of the most remarkable achievements of Neolithic societies in north-west Europe. Where precisely these stones were quarried, when they were extracted and how they were transported has long been a subject of speculation, experiment and controversy. The discovery of a megalithic bluestone quarry at Craig Rhos-y-felin in 2011 marked a turning point in this research. Subsequent excavations have provided details of the quarrying process along with direct dating evidence for the extraction of bluestone monoliths at this location, demonstrating both Neolithic and Early Bronze Age activity

Camels and Climate Resilience: Adaptation in Northern Kenya

In the drylands of Africa, pastoralists have been facing new challenges, including those related to environmental shocks and stresses. In northern Kenya, under conditions of reduced rainfall and more frequent droughts, one response has been for pastoralists to focus increasingly on camel herding. Camels have started to be kept at higher altitudes and by people who rarely kept camels before. The development has been understood as a climate change adaptation strategy and as a means to improve climate resilience. Since 2003, development organizations have started to further the trend by distributing camels in the region. Up to now, little has been known about the nature of, reasons for, or ramifications of the increased reliance on camels. The paper addresses these questions and concludes that camels improve resilience in this dryland region, but only under certain climate change scenarios, and only for some groups.This study was funded by The Royal Geographical Society with Institute of British Geographers Thesiger-Oman Fellowship

LGP2 plays a critical role in sensitizing mda-5 to activation by double-stranded RNA.

The DExD/H box RNA helicases retinoic acid-inducible gene-I (RIG-I) and melanoma differentiation associated gene-5 (mda-5) sense viral RNA in the cytoplasm of infected cells and activate signal transduction pathways that trigger the production of type I interferons (IFNs). Laboratory of genetics and physiology 2 (LGP2) is thought to influence IFN production by regulating the activity of RIG-I and mda-5, although its mechanism of action is not known and its function is controversial. Here we show that expression of LGP2 potentiates IFN induction by polyinosinic-polycytidylic acid [poly(I:C)], commonly used as a synthetic mimic of viral dsRNA, and that this is particularly significant at limited levels of the inducer. The observed enhancement is mediated through co-operation with mda-5, which depends upon LGP2 for maximal activation in response to poly(I:C). This co-operation is dependent upon dsRNA binding by LGP2, and the presence of helicase domain IV, both of which are required for LGP2 to interact with mda-5. In contrast, although RIG-I can also be activated by poly(I:C), LGP2 does not have the ability to enhance IFN induction by RIG-I, and instead acts as an inhibitor of RIG-I-dependent poly(I:C) signaling. Thus the level of LGP2 expression is a critical factor in determining the cellular sensitivity to induction by dsRNA, and this may be important for rapid activation of the IFN response at early times post-infection when the levels of inducer are low

Tree thinking cannot taken for granted: challenges for teaching phylogenetics

Tree thinking is an integral part of modern evolutionary biology, and a necessary precondition for phylogenetics and comparative analyses. Tree thinking has during the 20th century largely replaced group thinking, developmental thinking and anthropocentricism in biology. Unfortunately, however, this does not imply that tree thinking can be taken for granted. The findings reported here indicate that tree thinking is very much an acquired ability which needs extensive training. I tested a sample of undergraduate and graduate students of biology by means of questionnaires. Not a single student was able to correctly interpret a simple tree drawing. Several other findings demonstrate that tree thinking is virtually absent in students unless they are explicitly taught how to read evolutionary trees. Possible causes and implications of this mental bias are discussed. It seems that biological textbooks can be an important source of confusion for students. While group and developmental thinking have disappeared from most textual representations of evolution, they have survived in the evolutionary tree drawings of many textbooks. It is quite common for students to encounter anthropocentric trees and even trees containing stem groups and paraphyla. While these biases originate from the unconscious philosophical assumptions made by authors, the findings suggest that presenting unbiased evolutionary trees in biological publications is not merely a philosophical virtue but has also clear practical implications